Forenregeln » ngrams victories came on short track

Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This remedial statistical method has gone 9-5 in picks through the first three rounds. Heres a quick look at the five series that went the wrong way: In the first round, Columbus came in ahead of Pittsburgh, though that required Sergei Bobrovsky to perform better than Marc-Andre Fleury (not an impossibility given Fleurys playoff track record), but Fleury and Bobrovsky each had a .908 save percentage in Round One and Pittsburgh dominated puck possession to an extent that they did not during the regular season. Minnesota upended Colorado, in Game Seven overtime, which wasnt altogether surprising. I would have easily been able to talk myself into the upset had the Wild not gone into the series with Ilya Bryzgalov as their starting goaltender, because the Wild were a superior possession team. Darcy Kuemper returned for four games and helped tilt the series back in Minnesotas favour and Semyon Varlamov, whose regular-season play fueled the Avalanches top seed finish, was only okay in the postseason, posting a .913 save percentage in seven games. The touchiest series for this years playoffs was the San Jose-Los Angeles matchup in Round One. The forecast had the Sharks favoured by the slimmest of margins (18.15 expected goals to 18.09 expected goals) and, when they had a 3-0 series lead, that coin flip looked to be falling the right way. We know how that has turned out since that point. In the second round, the Boston Bruins were favoured over the Montreal Canadiens, and while the Bruins controlled large portions of the series, they couldnt solve Carey Price, who had a .936 save percentage in the seven-game upset. Then, in the Conference Finals, the forecast put the Chicago Blackhawks over the Los Angeles Kings, due to a goaltending advantage, because Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick hasnt been great in this years playoffs. After what was a sensational series, it was safe to say that neither team held a goaltending advantage -- both Quick and Corey Crawford struggled -- and the Kings took Game Seven in OT. So, those misses are on the record as we head into the Stanley Cup Final. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.4 shots on goal per game and the Los Angeles Kings have allowed 27.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 29.70 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Rangers. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Final: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Los Angeles 31.5 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.912 16.54 N.Y. Rangers 32.4 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.922 18.30 Verdict: While the Kings and Rangers are very similar in their playoff puck possession rates, the Kings were tops in the league during the regular season and ran through a more difficult gauntlet in the Western Conference to reach the Cup Final. The difference in shot rates during the regular season is pretty small, however, with the Kings earning 54.7% of the shots as the Rangers earned 53.0% of the total shots. Over the course of a game, that amounts to about one extra shot on goal; hardly the kind of difference that couldnt be overcome by better goaltending. Which brings us to the advantage to which the Rangers will cling. Lundqvist has been one of the games top goaltenders since coming into the league in 2005-2006, and is performing at a high level in this years playoffs as well, so couldnt he stop an extra shot or two per game? At the other end, Jonathan Quick has traditionally been a very good playoff goaltender in his own right, but his .906 save percentage this year has dropped Quicks all-time playoff save percentage to .922, falling fractionally behind Lundqvist. Certainly, some of the blame for this seasons save percentage can be attributed to the calibre of teams that the Kings have faced on their way to the Cup Final, with San Jose (sixth), Anaheim (first) and Chicago (second) all among the top-scoring teams in the league this season. By comparison, the Rangers got through Philadelphia (eighth), Pittsburgh (fifth) and Montreal (21st), so there is some quality of competition favouring Quick. It would be an upset if the Rangers won the series but a seven-game series, if otherwise close, can easily be decided by goaltending and, right now, its not unreasonable to hold higher expectations for Lundqvist. Lets see if King Henrik can get the job done. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. China Shoes Free Shipping . -- Maple Leafs captain Dion Phaneuf has been suspended two games for his hit from behind on Kevan Miller of the Bruins. China Shoes Cheap . Each day, TSN.ca provides the latest rumours, reports and speculation from around the NHL beat. Defensive Depth TSN Hockey Insider Pierre LeBrun is reporting the Toronto Maple Leafs have considerable interest in unrestricted free-agent defenceman Dan Boyle. https://www.chinashoesshop.com/ .S. Basketball Writers Association. McDermott, who finished his career at Creighton as college basketballs fifth-leading scorer, accepted the honour from Hall of Famer Oscar Robertson at AT&T Stadium, site of the Final Four. China Shoes Wholesale .com) - Robert Martin and Josh Hicks combined for more than 300 yards rushing and three touchdowns, as Rutgers rolled past North Carolina, 40-21, in the Quick Lane Bowl. China Shoes Jordans . Chris Heisey followed with a two-run triple and Billy Hamilton added an RBI double, all but sealing Cincinnatis fourth straight victory and seventh in eight games. Brandon Phillips, celebrating his 33rd birthday, hit a go-ahead homer in the ninth for the Reds before pinch-hitter Buster Posey tied it with an RBI double off hard-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman in the bottom half. CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Dale Jarrett had no idea what crazy things Blake Shelton might say as the country music star inducted him into the NASCAR Hall of Fame. "It could have gone in a lot of different directions," Jarrett said of Sheltons induction speech. Shelton read a handwritten and heartfelt speech about his love of racing, inherited through his late father, who as his health declined was so thrilled that his son got to hang with some of NASCARs biggest stars. Jarrett on occasion spoke to Sheltons father on the phone. "I believe it was little things like that that kept my dad happy those last few years," Shelton said. "And even though I know he was beyond proud of my accomplishments in music, he just couldnt get over the fact that I got to spend time with guys like Clint Bowyer and Elliott Sadler, and most of all, Dale Jarrett." It set the tone for Jarretts emotional induction. He joined his father, Ned, as just the second father-son combination with NASCAR championships inducted into the Hall. The Jarretts join Lee and Richard Petty. A three-time Daytona 500 winner, two-time Brickyard winner and the 1999 Cup champion, Jarrett was emotional the entire time. But he had to choke back tears when it came time to address his father. "My dad has been everything a son would want his father to be -- successful, a leader by example, a teacher you can believe in, and always there to support me," Jarrett said. "My dad was and still is today my hero. Thats what really makes this night so very special: Im joining my father in the NASCAR Hall of Fame." Ned Jarrett is the first of the 25 Hall of Fame members still alive to see his son inducted. "As a child and a 57 year old one right now, theres not a lot we can do that our parents will take for payment back for everything they did for us in our lives," Jarrett said. "In a small way, I feel like this is something I can give to them that they can be proud of." Maurice Petty was inducted to complete the Petty dynasty in the Hall, which now includes his father, brother and cousin as members of the exclusive group. "The Chief" was inducted by brother Richard Petty, the seven-time NASCAR champion and member of the inaugural Hall of Fame class. "The big deal is that its really the end of Petty Enterprises because we started in 1949, and now that my brother is in the Hall of Fame, then that pretty well closes the book on it," Richard Petty said. Maurice Petty is the first engine builder inducted into the Hall. His engines won seven titles and more than 200 races, including seven Daytona 500s. Also in the Hall from the Petty Enterpriise dynasty is patriarch Lee Petty, and the Petty boys cousin and crew chief, Dale Inman.dddddddddddd "Who would have thought growing up that there would be four of us, out of a small, rural country community that would be in a North Carolina Hall of Fame?" said Maurice Petty of the familys roots in Level Cross. Fireball Roberts, considered the first superstar of NASCAR, was the second member inducted. He won Daytona seven times, including the 1962 Daytona 500, and had two Southern 500 victories. He ran just 10 races in 1958, winning six. He died from critical burns suffered in a crash at Charlotte in 1964 when his car overturned and caught fire. Roberts, who suffered from asthma, had always refused to soak his firesuit in flame retardant chemicals because of the fumes. His grandson, Matt McDaniel, accepted Roberts induction and noted his death led to safety improvements in NASCAR. "After his death, NASCAR started developing flame retardant coveralls, five point safety harnesses, special contoured seats and a fire zone fuel cell," McDaniel said. Jack Ingram, considered one of NASCARs greatest drivers, was inducted by his close friend and rival Harry Gant. Ingram won three consecutive Late Model Sportsman championships, then the inaugural Busch Series title in 1982 and again in 1985. Ingrams mark of 31 Busch wins stood until Mark Martin beat it in 1997. All but two of Ingrams victories came on short tracks. Ingram told a story of winning the track championship at Harris Speedway in Ruffin County by winning the final race of the season, only to have the check for his winnings bounce. He called NASCAR from the bank and was told where to go to cash the check. "I took it down there and walked in that door. They handed me five 100 dollar bills -- that kept my family going for several months," Ingram said. "I was a total supporter of NASCAR from then on because (founder) Bill France, he meant what he said when he said he guaranteed that purse. I appreciated that the whole rest of my life." Two-time series champion Tim Flock, one of NASCARs first dominant drivers, was remembered during his induction for the Rhesus monkey named Jocko that was his co-pilot for many eight races. Winner of 39 races and the 1952 and 1955 championships, the tale told by Flocks widow, Frances, was of the time Jocko got loose in the car during a 1953 race in Raleigh. "Tim had to pull in the pits to put Jocko out, the monkey out of the car," she said. "He came in third that day, and the extra pit stop to remove Jocko from the car cost him a big sum of money that day. His brother finally went on to win the race." ' ' '